Funny MMA Picture Of The Day: First Vaseline-Gate, Now…Elbowgate?

Conspiracy! Apparently spending too much time around Mark Coleman gives you a ridiculously big elbow. Proof after the jump.

Funny MMA Videos Of The Day: Fix! UFC Is Not As Real As It Gets!

Well, at least not in these promo videos for the new UFC Magazine now on sale. There are 2 such clips, one featuring Georges St. Pierre & Thiago Alves poolside with beach chairs, hot babes in biknis galore and…watch for it at the 48-50 scond mark…the return of THE TWEAK! You know what that means! The second clip is a clash of foes-and fashion-as rico swave Michael Bisping & wardrobe FAIL (courtesy of some UFC dingbat) Dan Henderson practice parking lot staredowns. Check out both courtesy of UFC after the jump. As for the post title, it’s play on words on these videos. These confrontations are staged/rehearsed/planned/etc., or as us wrestling fans would call them, “works”.

Vaseline-Gate Update: It Drags On

Yes, we UFC fans were reminded yesterday that we still don’t have a definite resolution to the controversy at UFC 94 I quickly dubbed (and should’ve copyrighted) “Vaseline-Gate” stemming from the main event of BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre. Click below to read a small update from the topic coming up again the other day before the NSAC.

Vaseline-Gate Update: The End Is (Finally) Near? (Updated)

If what the NSAC is saying, the answer thankfully could be yes…and as soon as today. MMAjunkie.com has the scoop, check it out after the jump:

Vaseline-Gate Update: Penn (Finally) Files Formal Complaint

Took him long enough. Anyway, MMAWeekly has the scoop.

Vaseline-Gate Update: GSP’s Team Formally Responds

It’s far from over, unfortunately. Head Trainer Greg Jackson and Georges St. Pierre cornerman Phil Nurse have formally responded to the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) in defense of a letter sent to the NSAC by BJ Penn earlier this month to address greasing allegations in their welterweight title fight at UFC 94 on January 31. Penn still hasn’t filed the formal complaint even though he recently said he will do so soon.

The LA Times has put up the entire response letter, viewable after the jump (there’s a link at this page to the PDF file-warning for slow connections: It’s 17 pages):
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/mma_/index.html

I took a glance over the first few pages but eventually the quality of the file (which clearly looked to be hand-scanned) got to the point of unreadable and too messy for me. Draw your own conclusions. What happens to GSP’s side is still up to the NSAC-they could hand out fines, suspensions, or other punishment, or ultimately do nothing. It’s wait and see.

So Close, Yet So Far Away: UFC 94 NOT The Biggest UFC Ever

So much for the biggest UFC fight to date being just that, at least when we’re talking money and butts in seats. The NSAC has just revealed the actual attendance and live gate totals for UFC 94, and they look something like this…

Attendance: 14,885 total. They claimed 14,885 paid, but they actually had 13,622 paid and 1,263 comps (free tickets given away).

Live gate: $4,290,020. They claimed $4.3 million, so one could argue they rounded up to account for that missing $9,980. FYI: That comes out to an average ticket price per paid attendee of $314.93 (rounded).

As far as the attendance goes, that number puts it a distant #2 all-time among attendance for a UFC event. UFC 83, with 21,390, is the record holder. The live gate is #6 all-time. The record holder is still UFC 66 (Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz for UFC Light Heavyweight Title). So while GSP-Penn might’ve been billed as the biggest fight in UFC yet, it appears it was only that in the Octagon…and, of course in controversy (Vaseline-Gate).

BJ Penn Retirement Rumor Update: Not Yet

At a recent “Welcome Home” rally for him in Hilo, Hawaii, UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn discussed his future plans, namely thoughts he might retire, and gave his answer on those rumors: Nope. From The Honolulu Advertiser:

There will be more world championship bouts for Hilo’s BJ Penn.

Whether or not another one with Georges St-Pierre is in the future remains to be seen.

In his first public appearance since losing to St-Pierre in the main event of UFC 94 in Las Vegas on Jan. 31, Penn addressed hundreds of his fans at a “Welcome Home BJ Penn” rally yesterday at the Ala Moana Center Centerstage.

“Of course, I was sad after that loss and a lot of things were going through my head,” he said. “But I woke up one day and said, ‘You know what? I’m still the lightweight champ. Let’s keep fighting.’ “

The bout with Canada’s St-Pierre was for the UFC welterweight (170 pounds) world championship. Penn’s lightweight (155) world title was not on the line.

Penn said his camp is currently negotiating with UFC officials for a lightweight title bout against No. 1 contender Kenny Florian of Boston.

“That will probably be this summer, so that’s my focus now,” Penn said.

But there are still unfinished matters from the St-Pierre fight. Most notable, there is what has become known as “Greasegate.”

The Nevada State Athletic Commission is still reviewing the illegal application of Vaseline by a cornerman on St-Pierre’s chest, shoulders and back in between the first and second rounds of the bout. St-Pierre went on to win via TKO after the fourth round.

“The most important thing is that we told the commission to watch out for that before the fight, and then they caught him doing it and they didn’t tell us until after the fight,” Penn said. “I just wish they would have told us when it happened. It’s all hindsight now, but maybe they could have taken him to the back and cleaned him off or something.”

Because of the controversy, Penn said he’d like to get another shot at St-Pierre’s welterweight belt. St-Pierre is scheduled to face Brazilian Thiago Alves this summer.

“After I defend my belt and he defends his belt, I’d love to do it again,” Penn said. “Mostly because of the controversy. I just want it to be clean — no questions, no controversy.”

But Penn also admits that he took a beating at UFC 94. He said he can’t even recall what happened in the third and fourth rounds.

“I was probably borderline knocked out or something,” he said. “I just got beat up, that much I know.”

Penn received $125,000 for the bout, according to the Nevada commission (St-Pierre received $400,000).

“That’s how it is in our business, so I’m OK with it,” he said. “But I guess no matter what job you do, you always want to get paid more.”

Penn said he could not comment on potential additional income he could earn through pay-per-view sales of UFC 94. The event was projected to make close to $60 million in pay-per-view sales.

“Our contracts are confidential,” he said.

Still, Penn said being part of the frenzy surrounding UFC 94 was “amazing.”

“To see how big it was for everybody, and to have so much support, I feel so grateful,” he said.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20090215/SPORTS24/902150398/1213

Well, obviously I’m kinda satisfied here because it appears KenFlo is getting his overdue title shot…my guess is it’ll be at either UFC 99 (June) or 101 (likely August). And it does make Penn’s post-fight initial comments seem like they were a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to losing and being caught up in what was the start of “Vaseline-Gate”, among other things. Happens to the best of us. As for GSP, he’ll be defending vs. Thiago Alves at UFC 100 in July, so the earliest we could possible see a Penn-GSP 3 is probably November or December, maybe even Super Bowl ‘10 weekend, thich would be something like probably UFC 108. But both guys have to take care of business first. We’ll see how that turns out.

Vaseline-Gate Update: Some Guys Just Can’t Let It Go

I refer to one Matt Hughes, who apparently hasn’t gotten all his 15 minutes yet. From his official blog at matt-hughes.com:

I usually don’t do this, but I will this time.  When I talk about a topic one week, it usually doesn’t get brought up again.  I think a lot of people need to go back and reread last week’s blog, including GSP.  At no point did I accuse Georges of putting grease on himself.  All I said was that he felt slick.  I’ve wrestled over a thousand matches, fought 50 opponents, all I’ve ever done in life is wrestle and compete with other people.  With all that experience, do you think I wouldn’t be able to tell the difference between sweat and something else?  Last week when I got to Florida, I was in the elevator with Robbie, I said “Robbie did you hear about GSP?”  He said, “No, I don’t know what you’re talking about.”  I then said that BJ accused him of being slippery, Robbie looked right up at me and said, “That’s what you said after Anaheim.”  Also, I’ve had several people close to me around my town who have come up to me and said the same thing.  I’ve nothing against GSP, I even think he’s somewhat a likable guy.  Some people are trying to say that I’m making this personal and that’s just not true at all.  The reason I didn’t bring this up before was because I didn’t know there was anything to him being slick.  With all the other guys coming out and saying the same thing, I just wanted to be true to myself, and to everybody else, and say that there could be some validity there.  -matt

http://matt-hughes.com/blog1/2009/02/10/matt-veach/

Matt, I don’t have anything against you personally, I liked you when you fought, but SHUT UP ALREADY! You are coming off as a crybaby, a sore loser, an attention whore, and so on and so on. You are making it personal because you can’t stand that GSP is the champ and you’re not, plus he beat you more times than you beat him. Now I’ll give Matt credit, he makes a couple valid points here, but the terminology is still close enough and the timing of these comments aren’t the best either. Let it go, Matt. A-Roid is doing us all a favor right now. Don’t ruin it.

Vaseline-Gate Update: GSP Statement, Penn Wants 3rd Fight, More

As The (Greasy) World Turns…a few more developments in the GSP-Penn war I’ve dubbed “Vaseline-Gate”:

First up, this statement from GSP’s team on his behalf is making the rounds:

To:  The MMA Community
From:  Team GSP
Re:  Official Statement Regarding UFC 94 Victory: “The Last Word”

George St-Pierre’s successful welterweight title defense at UFC 94 was the direct result of his disciplined preparation and skillful execution of a masterful gameplan.  Any implication to the contrary would diminish the significance of what was perhaps the biggest fight in MMA history.

St-Pierre states: “I have never cheated in my life, and as my fans know, I am deeply committed to upholding the integrity of the sport.  My entire camp and I have been completely open about what happened during my fight at UFC 94 – we have nothing to hide.  One of my cornermen did use an energy technique to help with my breathing that involves rubbing my back.  He’s
also done this in my previous fights.  If there was any Vaseline left on his hand after he put it on my face, it was unintentional, and I do not believe it made the slightest difference in the outcome of the fight.  Of course it’s up to the UFC, but I would be happy to offer BJ a second rematch.  I am confident the outcome will be the same.”

Team GSP is currently enjoying our victory celebration and we will soon turn our attention and focus toward Georges’ next competitor – Thiago Alves.

Shari L. Spencer

As for Penn, this…

“For the past several days I have been reading statements made by St. Pierre and Greg Jackson about our fight on January 31. St. Pierre claims that he is ‘not a cheater’ and that he and Greg Jackson will have ‘no problem with a rematch in the summer of 2009.’ To the untrained eye the grease might not look like much, but every grappler knows the effect that it has. Being able to apply your submissions and sweeps or just being able to hold on to your opponent to defend yourself from being hit is absolutely critical! There is a reason why you are not allowed to put grease anywhere on your body except for the area around your eyes. Because of the grease applied to St.Pierre’s Body the Nevada State Athletic Commission’s executive director, Keith Kizer has stated that the Penn-St. Pierre fight ‘definitely wasn’t fair.’ I hereby accept George St. Pierre and Greg Jackson’s challenge for a fight in the summer 2009. Lets call Dana now and set it up.”

Not so fast, Dana has other plans for both. For GSP, it’s Thiago Alves’ title shot which may happen at UFC 100 in July according to Alves. That’s not confirmed yet. An outside shot it happens at UFC’s next Canada event, but it’s short turnaround for GSP if it happens-April 18. Dana’s plan for Penn is to have him back at Lightweight and finally giving Kenny Florian his title shot. So thinking realistically, I see the earliest a 3rd fight could happen as being October. This assumes BJ-KenFlo happens in May or June (that seems the earliest) and GSP-Alves happens in July. But in the meantime, let’s just wait and see what the NSAC says, it’s now in their hands.

Vaseline-Gate: GSP(issed) Says Enough

Apparently Georges St. Pierre has had, and heard, enough from BJ Penn, Matt Hughes, & others about allegations of cheating stemming from “Vaseline-Gate”. And he’s made himself heard. He was on the Sherdog Radio Network yesterday, here are excerpts from what he said:

“Listen, I never cheated in my life,” an animated St. Pierre told Sherdog Radio Network’s “Beatdown” show on Wednesday. “Let me tell you something, I never said something bad to B.J. Penn. I never answered back to him with what he said. I’ve always been respectful. Even after the fight I went and told him, ‘Hey, keep your head up. You can be proud. You’re a tough guy. You stayed in the ring for a long time.’ But now that he says something like that it bothers me a lot. He already said I was taking steroids, that I was a quitter, that he was blaming me for seeing a sports psychologist and now he says that I cheat because I use Vaseline.”
“It’s disrespectful, but B.J. is a winner,” St. Pierre said. “I understand a winner’s mentality. A winner’s mentality always tries to understand the reason why he lost. In B.J.’s case, he doesn’t do it in a good way. I understand that he tries to understand why he lost, but what he should’ve done instead of looking at things he doesn’t control he should’ve looked at himself in the mirror and asked himself what he should’ve done better to be more well-prepared for that fight to be able to beat Georges St. Pierre instead of looking at me and try to find excuses… B.J. right now is doing it all wrong and he’s not going to become a better fighter if he keeps acting like this.”
“First of all what happened is Phil, he put Vaseline in my face, but then after he didn’t have the Vaseline,” said St. Pierre. “After he put Vaseline in my face, he didn’t put Vaseline in my back. That’s what people don’t understand. He put one hand on my chest and he made a circle behind my back. It helps my breathing.”
St. Pierre also outlined the importance of being massaged between rounds.
“When you come back in the corner, sometimes by punching and clinching, your shoulders are stiff,” said St. Pierre. “So it’s good to massage the shoulders to make the blood flow, you know what I mean? To make it more loose. If you look at muay Thai fights, in muay Thai they come back in the corner to get massage[d] to make the blood circulate. It’s the same thing in MMA. You get massage[d] to make the blood flow so you’re more fresh the next round.”
In the letter filed Tuesday with the NSAC, Penn’s camp also stated they’d received prior knowledge of St. Pierre’s alleged tendencies.
Matt Hughes, who lost to St. Pierre in two of their three welterweight bouts, has been one former opponent of the beloved Canadian champion to comment publicly about the allegations.
“I’m not saying GSP did something wrong and I’m not saying that it would have changed any outcomes of any fights; but what I am saying is, for my last two fights against Georges, he felt greasy,” read a post on Hughes’ Web site on Tuesday.
St. Pierre seemed shocked by Hughes’ words.
“I don’t know what to say,” he told the “Beatdown” hosts. “The next fight day they just have to check me. I have nothing to hide. It pisse[s] me off a little bit. It’s like people are jealous or something… I’m not going to talk bad. I don’t mind. Everything comes up and down in life. I think Matt Hughes is trying to find excuses now for going on the way down. I don’t know.”
When asked about giving Penn a rematch in light of the controversy, St. Pierre didn’t hesitate though.
“Lets go do a rematch with B.J. Penn,” said St. Pierre. “We’re going to do it this summer. St. Pierre-Penn III — and this time we’ll wear a rash guard. I guarantee you the result will be the same or even worse for him.”

http://sherdog.com/news/news/st-pierre-i-never-cheated-in-my-life-16065

Which probably ends with something along the lines of “I am not impressed by your performance”. Nonetheless, it’s good to finally hear GSP’s side of the story, and it’s important he speak out given all the allegations being made by Penn & others. This probably won’t be the end to all of it, but GSP is one of the people who would know best about what goes on in his corner and this sounds like a fairly good defense argument. Now we wait and see what the NSAC and others have to say.

Vaseline-Gate Update: Matts Claim GSP Greased Before?

Either that or anyone Georges St. Pierre has beaten over the last year or two is jumping on the bandwagon since Saturday. I think the latter, but this interesting quote came from former UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Hughes, who’s fought GSP a few times before and, over the last couple years, has twice lost to him, via his official blog on matt-hughes.com, his official website:

“I was also surprised by the final match, I thought B.J. would have put on a better performance. B.J. Penn is coming from a lighter weight class, but he took the fight at 170. That’s the bottom line. I knew it was going to come down to who had the better cardio and even at the end of the first round B.J. looked tired.

Now, on to what everybody is talking about, the greasing. I’m not the only one who has said that GSP felt greasy during a fight. I know Matt Serra has mentioned it and, even in their first fight, I think B.J. said something. I’m not saying GSP did something wrong and I’m not saying that it would have changed any outcomes of any fights; but what I am saying is, for my last two fights against Georges, he felt greasy.”

http://matt-hughes.com/blog1/2009/02/03/ufc-94/

Boo hoo hoo. Cry me a river. I smell some serious bandwagoning. Now let’s keep in mind these 2 Hughes-GSP fights were, respectively, just over 1 & 2 years ago (November ‘07 and November ‘06), their first fight was all the way back in November ‘04. But it’s possible that Greg Jackson (GSP’s current trainer) has been doing this stuff with his guys for a while and we didn’t know it until “the tweak” became mainstream a few months ago. The first Penn-GSP fight, for those curious, was nearly 3 years ago (March ‘06). Which begs one question to be asked…why now? If you knew about it back then why wasn’t it brought up way back then instead of waiting until just now? That makes it sound more like it’s a ploy to get some free attention at the expense of others, hence the bandwagoning. Or maybe Hughes is still just bitter over dropping 2 in a row to GSP, and to even mention Serra without anything negative towards his bitter rival is shocking in its own right. Who’s next? Maybe we’ll find out soon in the next installment of As The (Greasy) World Turns…

Vaseline-Gate Update: GSP Had A “Witch Doctor”? (Updated)

And not the kind you might think that does that “ching-chang walla walla bing-bang” or whatever thing. Perhaps it’s just another weird fight ritual from the camp who gaves us “the tweak”. According to the latest update from MMAWeekly.com, seems Greg Jackson had a “witch doctor” in GSP’s corner performing some new, bizarre ritual that will soon be the wave of the future in MMA corners:

Jackson spoke to MMAWeekly.com on Sunday afternoon and said the misunderstanding arose after Phil Nurse, one of St. Pierre’s cornermen, executed a ritual taught by a member of St. Pierre’s team, a “witch doctor” named Steven Friend.

“So in between rounds, (Friend) had this little drill that you do – and Phil Nurse is the one who knows how to do it – he showed Phil, and this is what Georges wanted, so we did that,” Jackson said. “But this is why we were doing it. He rubbed your back and tapped your chest; I don’t know exactly how it works. But anyways, what that’s supposed to do is get your energy in line, or motivated or whatever. So in between rounds, we had Phil Nurse do that.”

Jackson said St. Pierre has worked with Friend for years, since the French Canadian began training at Jackson’s academy in Albuquerque, N.M. Jackson says Friend has also worked with Matt Hughes and Randy Couture in preparation for their fights. Friend was featured in the sixth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” as a guest of Hughes.

“The controversy came because Phil Nurse also was putting Vasoline on Georges’ eyebrows,” Jackson elaborated. “In between rounds, you always want to put on Vasoline on (a fighter’s face). So Phil Nurse put all the Vasoline on his face, so his hands might have had a miniscule amount left over from that, when he went around the side and rubbed a little point on his back, and tapped on his chest.

“At that point, somebody in the audience thought we were greasing George down, and ran over and told the commission that we were greasing his body down. The commission came in and said ‘you can’t grease him down,’ which didn’t work. They said ‘you’re putting Vasoline on his back,’ and Phil’s like, ‘oh, there might be a little on my fingers, but it wasn’t intentional at all, and of course they wiped it right off and it was gone, so it wasn’t a factor in the fight at all.”

“We told our side of the story, we said didn’t mean to put any grease anywhere,” he said. “If we were trying to grease the back we’d be greasing up and down, we would make it count. We wouldn’t do a little tiny spot in the back. The whole thing doesn’t make any sense, so they were fine with it once we gave our explanation. It wasn’t like we were taking gobs of Vasoline and slathering on his back. They didn’t understand the drill that the witch doctor was having us do, and so it looked that way. It didn’t effect the fight at all.”

At this point, no formal complaint has been filed with the NSAC. The popular trainer chalks the whole incident up to fan paranoia.

“The whole greasing thing is pretty ridiculous,” he said. “You can’t grease somebody up. You just couldn’t do it. They check your body before you get into the cage, there’s an inspector right there. In order for us to grease him up, it would be insane. There are cameras everywhere. We don’t cheat. We don’t need to cheat to win.”

Jackson said he wasn’t aware if St. Pierre’s ritual was related to the infamous “nipple tweak,” as the whole business was “out of his domain.” As long as it made his fighter feel better, he was all for it.

“If it works, we’re going to use it,” he said.

Ridiculous indeed. Over-reaction on the NSAC’s part? Perhaps, but they’re trying to make sure the rules are enforced and it’s fair, so you can’t put too much blame on their shoulders. Does sound like it could’ve just been an honest mistake, which makes sense-happens all the time. Or so we are led to believe. Let’s also keep an eye on Vaseline stock today because this whole thing could be quite good for business too. And BJ Penn fans need to man up and admit their guy lost and lost fairly, move on and give Kenny Florian the title shot he deserves already.

UDPATE: According to a summary of the articles and more on BloodyElbow.com, we now might know who that “somebody in the audience” was…Chuck Liddell. Carrying a grudge, perhaps? Here’s the specific quote:

“Jackson doesn’t mention that “somebody in the audience” was apparently Chuck Liddell. Hardly an uninformed spectator.”

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/2/2/744379/more-on-the-georges-st-pie

Also some pictures after the jump. The quote above is near the end.

Vaseline-Gate: Penn Protests UFC 94 Fight Against G(rea)S(ed)P

Apparently the NSAC saw something we didn’t during the UFC 94 main event, namely a certain name brand petroleum jelly being applied to Georges St. Pierre between rounds. The story from MMAmania.com:

Between the second and third rounds of his fight against BJ Penn at UFC 94: “St. Pierre vs. Penn 2,” Georges St. Pierre had an excessive amount of Vaseline applied to his back by his cornermen.

Officials ringside noticed the generous — and illegal — helping of petroleum jelly on the backside of the Canadian and sprung into action, having it removed before he could come out for the round. St. Pierre had no excuses for the incident, saying it was just a minor mistake caused by the between-round frenzy.

BJ Penn and his team, however, do not see it the same.

“The Prodigy” indicated that he is set to file a complaint with the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC). When contacted for comment, the government entity that regulates the sport in “Sin City” did not have an immediate statement on the incident.

St. Pierre throttled Penn for four full rounds to retain his 170-pound title. He relied on his strong wrestling skills to take the lightweight champion to the mat and pound on him for most of the fight. St. Pierre also demonstrated crisp stand up, landing some nice shots and even a few head-snapping Superman jabs.

The Hawaiian had no answers … literally. Penn did not answer the bell for the fifth and final round.

The fight was a lopsided drubbing. And it’s hard to imagine that Vaseline was the reason behind it. Nonetheless, if the application of the slippery substance was premeditated to give St. Pierre an advantage — and not a minor mistake as St. Pierre claims — then there could be repercussions.

Rest assured that the NSAC, if a complaint was indeed filed, will do its best to get to the bottom of the situation.

From what I know, the advantage would likely be it would make GSP very slippery and tough for Penn to grip, making throws, takedowns, and some ground submission holds, escapes, etc. insanely difficult, akin to when fighters get extremely sweaty over the course of long fights. Not exactly what UFC needs coming off perhaps their biggest fight ever-controversy. Or is Penn just crying foul because he got the Matt Hughes treatment and didn’t like his head being used as essentially a punching back for those last 2 rounds? We shall see. Repercussions would likely affect the guilty cornerman and hopefully not St. Pierre. Let’s see what the NSAC has to say about this first.

Confuseyus: UFC 94 Preview & Predictions (Updated-Parisyan Concerns, Backup Plan Added!)

Confuseyus

Perhaps the biggest fight in UFC history to date is only 10 days away…UFC 94 will be headlined by a Champion vs. Champion fight, as the Lightweight Champion moves up to face the Welterweight Champion, but this time BJ Penn & Georges St. Pierre meet as champions of their respective division with the Welterweight Title-and perhaps Kenny Florian’s patience and sanity-on the line. There’s plenty more on the card including the return of Stephan Bonnar, a big fight featuring TUF 5 winner Nate Diaz, and much more…let’s get to it. (I had planned to put this up over the weekend but realized some scheduling conflicts I had may not allow it. So it’s up early, enjoy)

Usual disclaimer: As always, these picks/predictions are strictly for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any real-life betting/wagering. All records are taken from fighter records from either Sherdog’s FightFinder and/or from the “Official” database at MixedMartialArts.com (which also indicates whether not results are/were verified by an official State, Tribal, Provincial, or Municipal Commission among other things). A “NC” in a record indicates No Contest. Fighter rankings are based on the latest MMAWeekly World MMA Rankings, last updated 1/21/09.

Prelim matches-these fights may not air on PPV:
Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer
Records: Arroyo 3-2, Cramer No Record.
Despite losing at the TUF 7 Finale for the second time in his career to Matt Brown (first time was at the TUF 6 Finale), Arroyo is coming back to face Cramer, a fellow TUF 7 competitor making his official UFC/MMA debut here.  Cramer won his first 2 TUF 7 fights but then lost to Tim Credeur in the 2nd round of the prelims. Arroyo is 1-1 in UFC following the Brown loss nad gets a somewhat favorable fight against the less-experienced Cramer, who hasn’t fought since the TUF 7 season (nearly a year) for various reasons. These fights generally can be hard to predict, but Cramer’s green-ness and Arroyo’s submission prowess add up in my eyes to a tapout win for Arroyo.
Prediction: Arroyo by 2nd round submission/tapout.

Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellisch
Records: O’Brien 10-2, Wellisch 8-4
This matchup pits 2 hard-hitting Heavyweights in real need of a win. After 7 straight 1st round KO/TKOs, O’Brien arrived in UFC and stopped Kristof Madoux in round 2, then backed it up with 2 decision wins including one over Heath Herring before getting a big-time fight against former Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski. O’Brien got TKO’d near the end of round 2 then was handed another loss at the hands of super-prospect Cain Velasquez to drop him to 3-2 in UFC. Wellisch was originally cut in the whole AKA contract fiasco over the UFC video game, the same fiasco that caused Jon Fitch to be cut then brought back. Wellisch is 2-2 in UFC, coming off a loss to another super-prospect, Shane Carwin. Although both guys are wrestlers O’Brien prefers to utilize the power striking game while Wellisch mixed in submissions as well. This could be a do or die fight for both, I don’t see it lasting long given how hard-hitting these guys are and I think “Irish” will have those eyes smiling on him after he finishes Wellisch early on.
Prediction: O’Brien by 1st round KO/TKO.

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard
Records: Wilson 14-1, 1 NC, Howard 10-3
2 more IFL fighters meeting in this matchup. Wilson is 1-1 to date in UFC, he lost in his debut to Jon Fitch but came back with a win against Steve Bruno. Howard is making his UFC debut after fighting last year for the IFL and HDNet Fights, winning both. Given Wilson is more experienced in UFC and MMA I took him to win, just came down to the finishing method and when. I thought about it, did some research, and decided to go with an early TKO.
Prediction: Wilson by 1st round KO/TKO.

Manny (Manvel) Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares
Records: Gambyruan 8-3, Tavares 13-3
Both guys climbed fairly high earlier, have fallen down the ranks a bit, and each really needs this one a lot. Including the TUF 5 Finale, where he lost out on the season title due to an injury, Gamburyan is only 2-2 in UFC, not helped by getting KO’d in just 12 seconds last time out. Tavares won his first 2 fights in UFC to go to 12-0 and seemingly on the cusp of the Lightweight title picture. But he’s gone 1-3 since and now has lost 2 straight to fall to 3-3 in UFC. So there’s a lot-perhaps a roster spot-to lose here. These guys specialize in the ground game, submissions are each fighter’s forte. Gamburyan also has UFC pedigree in his blood-fellow UFC standout Karo Parisyan is his cousin. For better or worse. I hate to say it because I want to see Gamburyan get a redemption fight against Nate Diaz, but it’s not gonna happen. Tavares will dominate the ground game and maintain control through the fight on his way to a job-saving (for now) decision.
Prediction: Tavares by unanimous/majority decision.

Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono
Records: Fitch 17-3, 1 NC, Gono 29-13-7
Fitch is the #2 Welterweight in the World.
First up, this fight is getting overshadowed by the “WTF is Fitch doing in a prelim?” debate. It’s mainly because the main card is pretty stacked and has nothing to do with the AKA fiasco that got Fitch cut from UFC and re-hired all in about 24 hours. Fitch is coming off a loss to UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre that snapped a 15-fight winning streak, while Gono is 1-1 in UFC, only having 1 fight each of the last 2 years. That last fight was a controversial split decision loss to Dan Hardy, controversial because it happened in England (Hardy’s hometown). This fight could’ve bumped one other fight to make the main card but that’s how it is…and frankly, on paper this is an average fight. Nothing against either because they’re great fighters, but they’re kinda boring-these days the majority of their fights go to decisions. This one should be no different. Coming off his loss to GSP and with the contract debacle behind him, Fitch should come in focused and ready to climb back into title contention, and should do so convincingly here with a dominant performance that will be reflected on all the cards.
Prediction: Fitch by unanimous/majority decision.

PPV-these fights are scheduled to air on PPV:
Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida
Records: Diaz 10-2, Guida 24-9
On paper this is, excluding the Main Event, probably the fight of the night. Both fighters are looking to move up the crowded Lightweight ranks. Diaz won TUF 5 and is 5-0 in UFC including his Finale win, and is the younger brother of former UFC fighter Nick Diaz. Guida is only 4-3 in UFC but don’t be fooled by the record-he is the Energizer Bunny of UFC-keeps going, and going, and going…one thing you will always get out of Guida is 200% effort and a hell of a fight. He is one of the most exciting fighters to watch and just does not seem to gas as the fights go on. A very tough 3rd-round submission to Roger Huerta at the TUF 6 Finale in December ‘07 not only earned Guida a lot of respect and admiration, but it seems to have turned his UFC career around as he has won his last 2 fights since, most recently beating TUF 6 winner Mac Danzig by unanimous decision. Now he has a chance to beat another TUF winner in Diaz. I can’t use enough adjectives to describe how close this fight probably will be. It’s a wrestler vs. a Gracie Jiu-Jitsu student with also an excellent ground game, and a penchant for cockiness that perhaps is matched quite well by his opponent. My suggestions for this fight: 1-Plan on it going the distance. 2-Don’t blink. 3-Count on a close and perhaps controversial judge’s decision, which I think will favor Guida by a razor-thin margin. He’ll do just enough controlling and enough damage to hand the younger Diaz his first UFC loss and get one step closer to title contention, or at least another top-tier opponent.
Prediction: Guida by split decision.

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Records: Parisyan 18-5, Kim 11-0-1
This fight could be one to justify Parisyan’s “gatekeeper” reputation he’s earned by beating everyone but the best he’s faced. Since his early-UFC career loss to GSP, Parisyan has only lost twice-to Diego Sanchez and Thiago Alves. Both fights could’ve earned him title shots. Instead they earned him a trip back to the mid-card. Kim is considered UFC’s best bet for establishing a Korean fanbase (especially with the recent failure of Denis “Liu” Kang at UFC 93) and is being pushed as such. He’s 2-0 in UFC coming off a controversial split decision win over Matt Brown at UFC 88. 6 of his last 7 wins before that fight came by KO/TKO (along with 1 Draw). Parisyan will be a big step up for Kim, it’s a matchup of judoka-style fighters. The questions to answer here are how will Kim fare against his first big-name UFC foe, and will this be another breakthrough fight for Parisyan or another step back into mid-card doldrums that will indeed solidify him as the Welterweight gatekeeper? Kim probably won’t get a Welterweight title shot right away if he wins, but a decision win here moves him up a little closer.
Prediction: Kim by unanimous/majority decision.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
Records: Bonnar 11-4, Jones 7-0
This is a “Welcome Back” fight for Bonnar, who has been out since late 2007 due to injuries, personal issues, and a suspension for failing a drug test. It didn’t come at the best time for him, he has won his last 2 fights after a 2-fight losing streak but is coming off a 15-month layoff going into this fight. Bonnar gained fame as the TUF 1 runner-up, losing an instant classic fight to Forrest Griffin. Jones made a name for himself on the indy scene by going 6-0, blowing through his fights with just 1 even going past round 1. In his UFC debut, he beat Andre Gusmao by decision at UFC 87 and takes a big step up in Bonnar. Won’t be an easy first fight back for “The American Psycho”, but he’s got a lot to prove and wants to get back on track quickly and start working towards a title shot. A very late submission will be a good start for Bonnar. Nonetheless it’ll just be good to have him back at last.
Prediction: Bonnar by 3rd round submission/tapout.

Ryoto (Lyoto) Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
Records: Machida 13-0, Silva 13-0
Machida is the #4 Light Heavyweight in the world. Silva is the #10 Light Heavyweight in the world.
It’s likely, but not guaranteed, that the winner of this fight next fights for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title, and rightfully should be praying for Keith Jardine to beat Quinton Jackson in March so they can be the first to challenge new champion Rashad Evans. Despite his perfect record, machida has been constantly held back because his fights are, if nothing else, snoozefests. His style, while quite effective, is also quite boring to watch and he usually wins by decision, which doesn’t help with getting over (and title shots). OK, he did win one recent fight by late 2nd round tapout, but throw that one out and his last non-decision win came in April 06. Thiago Silva, meanwhile, is almost the polar opposite-generally he destroys his opponents and has stopped all 4 of his UFC foes to date. His striking has to be feared as that’s how he has finished off all 4. But will he able to find a counter to Machida’s “mysterious” effective fighting style? This is not just about a title shot here…Somebody’s 0 Has Got To Go! This one will not be as exciting as it should be…and there won’t be a title shot coming because Machida will bore his way to another decision victory and they’ll find a way to deny him the shot. Again.
Prediction: Machida by unanimous/majority decision.

Main Event: UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn for the Welterweight Title (Lightweight Title is not on the line)
Records: St. Pierre 17-2, Penn 13-4-1
St. Pierre is the #1 Welterweight in the world. Penn is the #2 Lightweight in the world.
This is it. The UFC Superfight Of UFC Superfights. The Lightweight Champion moving up to take on the Welterweight Champion and hoping to become the first man to hold 2 different UFC titles simultaneously. But there’s another story behind this-Penn wants not only GSP’s title, but revenge. March 4, 2006. UFC 58. GSP-Penn 1. GSP wins by split decision. Penn wants rematch. Now almost 3 years later, he gets it. Their careers have generally mirrored each other’s since-GSP then went on to realize his dream of winning the Welterweight Title, finally beating Matt Hughes in an exciting fight with a victory celebration that remains to me one of the most memorable moments ever in UFC. Then came the fluke loss to Matt Serra that seemed to end it all…at least until GSP got a second chance thanks to Serra’s injuries. He again beat Hughes to win the interim title, avenged his loss to Serra, and now has a successful title defense at last, dominating Jon Fitch last time out. Penn would lose to Hughes at UFC 63 then drop to Lightweight, where he beat Jens Pulver at the TUF 5 Finale then defeated Joe Stevenson to win the vacant UFC Lightweight Title followed by a successful defense against former champion Sean Sherk. Now Penn returns to 170 for the rematch with GSP.
I think the big question mark with Penn moving back up will be conditioning and agility. Obviously this won’t be a big cut for him, if at all, but at the lighter weight he’s probably more agile and without as much weight his conditioning is better, but with more weight he’ll give up a little of that and perhaps some speed & striking power. Other than that, this is way too close to try and call. Just sit back, enjoy, and hope it lives up to the hype machine UFC has created around it (and done an awesome job with). As for the outcome, I could be wrong but I see this one going the full 5 rounds with GSP taking a solid but not lopsided decision win, much to the delight of Kenny Florian who may now finally get his Lightweight Title shot, as well as to Thiago Alves who gets his shot at GSP. If he makes weight of course, he has problems with that sometimes.
Prediction: St. Pierre by unanimous/majority decision.

Results coming January 31!

1/30 UPDATE: According to MMAmania.com, UFC has concerns that Parisyan may pull out of tomorrow’s fight with Kim. No specific injury or reason beyond panic attacks, which he does suffer from. In the event this does happen or Parisyan can’t go for any reason, Rick Story (7-2 overall, has won his last 6 fights) has been added as a backup plan. As of this update, however, Parisyan is still on. But if he’s a last-minute scratch for any reason then Story will be the replacement.